Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Odra Opole: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Odra Opole

J. Ratajczak 87'

K. Nowak 21'

9/12/2021

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice39%

×Draw28%

Odra Opole33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Górnik Polkowice

1.23

Odra Opole

1.10

Górnik Polkowice creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

0.88

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Odra Opole

1.08

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Odra Opole

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

67%

Górnik Polkowice or Odra Opole

72%

Draw or Odra Opole

61%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

17%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

71%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

35%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

13%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

67%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

30%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

54%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.57 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Odra Opole defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

39%

level

28%

Odra Opole scores more

33%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

18'

21'

43'

46'

B. Żołądź← M. Pałaszewski

50'

M. Marzec

62'

M. Pawlik← T. Mikinič

62'

M. Spychała← M. Marzec

66'

M. Szuszkiewicz← K. Szmyt

66'

J. Sypek← A. Purzycki

69'

A. Żak← A. Piech

79'

M. Trojak

83'

M. Bancewicz← M. Piątkowski

83'

M. Wróbel← R. Niziołek

83'

B. Petrák← A. Klimek

85'

J. Ratajczak

87'

J. Ratajczak

88'

R. Karmelita← K. Wacławczyk

Górnik

Odra

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

46'▲B. Żołądź←▼M. Pałaszewski

66'▲M. Szuszkiewicz←▼K. Szmyt

66'▲J. Sypek←▼A. Purzycki

83'▲M. Bancewicz←▼M. Piątkowski

88'▲R. Karmelita←▼K. Wacławczyk

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

ŻołądźSzuszkiewiczSypekBancewiczKarmelita

Manager: A. Polak

62'▲M. Pawlik←▼T. Mikinič

62'▲M. Spychała←▼M. Marzec

69'▲A. Żak←▼A. Piech

83'▲M. Wróbel←▼R. Niziołek

83'▲B. Petrák←▼A. Klimek

Odra Opole substitutes

PawlikSpychałaŻakWróbelPetrák