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Górnik Polkowice vs Noteć Czarnków — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Górnik Polkowice41%
×Draw24%
Noteć Czarnków35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.66
Noteć Czarnków
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Noteć Czarnków
1.20

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.83
Noteć Czarnków
1.40

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Noteć Czarnków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
65%
Górnik Polkowice or Noteć Czarnków
76%
Draw or Noteć Czarnków
59%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
21%
Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
81%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
49%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
23%
Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
78%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
45%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
54%
Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Noteć Czarnków attack 1.20 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
41%
level
24%
Noteć Czarnków scores more
35%

Górnik Polkowice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Noteć Czarnków

Górnik Polkowice beat Noteć Czarnków 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.