Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

M. Cywiński 58'

5/12/2023

II Liga - East · Round 31Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Polkowice45%

×Draw23%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.43

Górnik Polkowice

1.75

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.43

Górnik Polkowice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

2.00

creates per match

1.71

1.15

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.71

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

68%

Górnik Polkowice or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

77%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

55%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

52%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

76%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

42%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

59%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

45%

level

23%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

32%

Górnik Polkowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Kozajda

26'

M. Magdziak

53'

M. Idzik

58'

R. Karmelita← M. Idzik

58'

58'

63'

65'

65'

T. Kaczmarek← J. Bojas

65'

A. Frączczak← J. Szarpak

73'

G. Goncerz← M. Cywiński

73'

M. Rakowski← K. Bartoś

75'

M. Piątkowski← K. Krasa

82'

M. Rakowski

90+3'

J. Kuzma

90+4'

G. Goncerz

Górnik

Kotwica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Grzegorczyk

58'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Idzik

58'▲J. Ciućka←▼D. Makuch

63'▲M. Czarny←▼D. Burka

75'▲M. Piątkowski←▼K. Krasa

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KarmelitaCiućkaCzarnyPiątkowski

Manager: M. Bartoszek

65'▲T. Kaczmarek←▼J. Bojas

65'▲A. Frączczak←▼J. Szarpak

73'▲G. Goncerz←▼M. Cywiński

73'▲M. Rakowski←▼K. Bartoś

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KaczmarekFrączczakGoncerzRakowski