Górnik Polkowice 2–2 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Korona Kielce

K. Szmyt 90+3'

M. Piątkowski 45+1'

J. Podgórski 83'

A. Danek 74'

10/23/2021

I Liga · Round 14Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice35%

×Draw29%

Korona Kielce35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

Górnik Polkowice

1.08

Korona Kielce

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.88

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Korona Kielce

1.03

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Korona Kielce

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

65%

Górnik Polkowice or Korona Kielce

71%

Draw or Korona Kielce

65%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

14%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

10%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

66%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

29%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

50%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Korona Kielce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Korona Kielce attack 1.03 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

level

29%

Korona Kielce scores more

35%

Górnik Polkowice at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

B. Zoladz

32'

P. Malarczyk

40'

M. Szpakowski

45+1'

M. Piątkowski

46'

Z. Petrović← M. Szpakowski

64'

M. Pervan← D. Błanik

67'

M. Koj

71'

Z. Petrovic

71'

J. Nojszewski← D. Lisowski

72'

R. Karmelita← M. Pałaszewski

74'

A. Danek

77'

M. Piatkowski

83'

J. Podgórski

84'

E. Sobków← M. Bancewicz

84'

D. Radziemski← M. Szuszkiewicz

86'

88'

90+4'

90+4'

90'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Opałacz

90'

A. Purzycki← B. Żołądź

90'

M. Bortniczuk← J. Łukowski

90+3'

K. Szmyt

Górnik

Korona

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

72'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Pałaszewski

84'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Bancewicz

84'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

90'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Opałacz

90'▲A. Purzycki←▼B. Żołądź

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KarmelitaSobkówRadziemskiWacławczykPurzycki

Manager: D. Nowak

46'▲Z. Petrović←▼M. Szpakowski

64'▲M. Pervan←▼D. Błanik

71'▲J. Nojszewski←▼D. Lisowski

90'▲M. Bortniczuk←▼J. Łukowski

Korona Kielce substitutes

PetrovićPervanNojszewskiBortniczuk