Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Górnik Polkowice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

4/20/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice48%

×Draw23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.32

Górnik Polkowice

1.78

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.32

Górnik Polkowice creates 35% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

1.72

creates per match

1.39

1.26

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

71%

Górnik Polkowice or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

77%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

52%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

26%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

26%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

73%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

38%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

63%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

48%

level

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

29%

Górnik Polkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff