Górnik Polkowice 0–0 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chrobry Głogów

8/19/2021

I Liga · Round 4Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice39%

×Draw28%

Chrobry Głogów32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.08

Górnik Polkowice

1.22

Chrobry Głogów

1.08

Górnik Polkowice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 133 away

0.88

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Chrobry Głogów

1.03

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Chrobry Głogów

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

68%

Górnik Polkowice or Chrobry Głogów

72%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

61%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

17%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

70%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

34%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

12%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

66%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

29%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

55%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.03 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

39%

level

28%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

32%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

O. Praznovsky

15'

O. Praznovsky

17'

M. Michalec← M. Lebedyński

44'

T. Cywka

45+2'

M. Ilkow-Golab

57'

M. Piątkowski← M. Pałaszewski

57'

J. Sypek← K. Szmyt

65'

R. Mandrysz← T. Cywka

70'

J. Ratajczak← M. Opałacz

71'

M. Biernat

75'

M. Bochnak← D. van der Heijden

75'

H. Turski← D. Piła

81'

B. Żołądź← A. Purzycki

81'

R. Karmelita← D. Radziemski

85'

86'

90+2'

90+2'

Górnik

Chrobry

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

57'▲M. Piątkowski←▼M. Pałaszewski

57'▲J. Sypek←▼K. Szmyt

70'▲J. Ratajczak←▼M. Opałacz

81'▲B. Żołądź←▼A. Purzycki

81'▲R. Karmelita←▼D. Radziemski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

PiątkowskiSypekRatajczakŻołądźKarmelita

Manager: I. Đurđević

17'▲M. Michalec←▼M. Lebedyński

65'▲R. Mandrysz←▼T. Cywka

75'▲M. Bochnak←▼D. van der Heijden

75'▲H. Turski←▼D. Piła

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

MichalecMandryszBochnakTurski