Górnik Konin 0–3 Radunia Stężyca: Result & Stats

Górnik Konin

FT

0 – 3

Radunia Stężyca

11/14/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin10%

×Draw14%

Radunia Stężyca76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik KoninExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.85

Górnik Konin

0.94

Radunia Stężyca

2.85

Radunia Stężyca creates 203% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

3.06

2.65

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Górnik Konin

1.06

Radunia Stężyca

3.06

allows per match

Górnik Konin

2.65

Radunia Stężyca

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–39%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw

24%

Górnik Konin or Radunia Stężyca

86%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

90%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

3%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

61%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

24%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

7%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

94%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

77%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

11%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Górnik Konin scores more

10%

level

14%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

76%

Radunia Stężyca at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff