Górnik Konin 1–2 Przodkowo: Result & Stats

Górnik Konin

FT

1 – 2

Przodkowo

3/13/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Piłkarski MOSiR im. Mariana Paska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin29%

×Draw23%

Przodkowo49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik KoninExpected goals in this matchPrzodkowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.88

Górnik Konin

1.40

Przodkowo

1.88

Przodkowo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

1.06

creates per match

1.10

2.65

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Górnik Konin

1.06

Przodkowo

1.10

allows per match

Górnik Konin

2.65

Przodkowo

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Przodkowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Przodkowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw

51%

Górnik Konin or Przodkowo

77%

Draw or Przodkowo

71%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

13%

Przodkowo wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

75%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

41%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

17%

Przodkowo 1+ goals

85%

Przodkowo 2+ goals

56%

Przodkowo 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

37%

Przodkowo (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Przodkowo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Przodkowo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Przodkowo attack 1.10 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Górnik Konin scores more

29%

level

23%

Przodkowo scores more

49%

Przodkowo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Przodkowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff