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Górnik Konin vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
FT
0 – 3
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
9/19/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin25%
×Draw22%
Pomorzanin Toruń52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Konin
1.27
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.92

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Konin
1.06
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Górnik Konin
2.65
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw
48%
Górnik Konin or Pomorzanin Toruń
78%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
75%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+
10%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
14%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
85%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
57%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
33%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Górnik Konin scores more
25%
level
22%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
52%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Konin vs Pomorzanin Toruń

Pomorzanin Toruń beat Górnik Konin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.