Górnik Konin 0–1 Gwardia Koszalin: Result & Stats

Górnik Konin

FT

0 – 1

Gwardia Koszalin

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin22%

×Draw22%

Gwardia Koszalin56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik KoninExpected goals in this matchGwardia Koszalin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.00

Górnik Konin

1.18

Gwardia Koszalin

2.00

Gwardia Koszalin creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

1.35

2.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Górnik Konin

1.06

Gwardia Koszalin

1.35

allows per match

Górnik Konin

2.65

Gwardia Koszalin

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw

44%

Górnik Konin or Gwardia Koszalin

78%

Draw or Gwardia Koszalin

78%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

9%

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

69%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

12%

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals

86%

Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals

59%

Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

28%

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Górnik Konin scores more

22%

level

22%

Gwardia Koszalin scores more

56%

Gwardia Koszalin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff