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Górnik Konin vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
FT
2 – 2
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
6/12/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin45%
×Draw21%
Chemik Police34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Konin
2.03
Chemik Police
1.76

Górnik Konin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Konin
1.06
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Górnik Konin
2.65
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw
66%
Górnik Konin or Chemik Police
79%
Draw or Chemik Police
55%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+
25%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
60%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
33%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
83%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
52%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
57%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.03

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Konin scores more
45%
level
21%
Chemik Police scores more
34%

Górnik Konin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Konin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Górnik Konin 2–2 Chemik Police

Górnik Konin and Chemik Police drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.