Górnik Łęczna W 2–1 Slask Wroclaw W: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slask Wroclaw W

8/10/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 1Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Górnik Łęczna W46%

×Draw23%

Slask Wroclaw W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Łęczna WExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.41

Górnik Łęczna W

1.77

Slask Wroclaw W

1.41

Górnik Łęczna W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

1.91

0.91

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna W

1.72

Slask Wroclaw W

1.91

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna W

0.91

Slask Wroclaw W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna W ↓

Slask Wroclaw W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna W or draw

69%

Górnik Łęczna W or Slask Wroclaw W

77%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw W

54%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+

25%

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals

26%

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

76%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

41%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)

60%

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna W at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Slask Wroclaw W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna W attack 1.72 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.91 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Łęczna W scores more

46%

level

23%

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

31%

Górnik Łęczna W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff