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Górnik Łęczna W vs Apollon Limassol W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Apollon Limassol W
Apollon Limassol W
11/18/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Górnik Łęczna W68%
×Draw16%
Apollon Limassol W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna W
3.10
Apollon Limassol W
1.50

Górnik Łęczna W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna W
3.80
Apollon Limassol W
1.80

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna W
1.20
Apollon Limassol W
2.40

finishing

Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par
Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna W ↓

Apollon Limassol W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna W or draw
84%
Górnik Łęczna W or Apollon Limassol W
84%
Draw or Apollon Limassol W
32%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
49%
Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
95%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
81%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
58%
Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals
78%
Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals
44%
Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
81%
Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna W at home — creates 3.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Apollon Limassol W away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna W attack 3.80 + Apollon Limassol W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.10

Apollon Limassol W attack 1.80 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Górnik Łęczna W scores more
68%
level
16%
Apollon Limassol W scores more
16%

Górnik Łęczna W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna W vs Apollon Limassol W

Górnik Łęczna W beat Apollon Limassol W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Łęczna.