Górnik Łęczna 1–1 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

3/17/2024

I Liga · Round 24Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Górnik Łęczna44%

×Draw27%

Znicz Pruszków30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Górnik Łęczna

1.39

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

Górnik Łęczna creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

1.35

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.35

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.11

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

70%

Górnik Łęczna or Znicz Pruszków

73%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

56%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

21%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

75%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

40%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

16%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

67%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

30%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

59%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

44%

level

27%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

30%

Górnik Łęczna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff