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Górnik Łęczna vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
5/21/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Górnik Łęczna46%
×Draw27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.42
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.02

Górnik Łęczna creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
73%
Górnik Łęczna or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
73%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
54%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
17%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
63%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
46%
level
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
27%

Górnik Łęczna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Górnik Łęczna 0–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Górnik Łęczna and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 0-0 in I Liga on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Łęczna.