Górnik Łęczna 6–1 Świdniczanka Świdnik

Górnik Łęczna

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1/14/2026

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Górnik Łęczna65%

×Draw19%

Świdniczanka Świdnik16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchŚwidniczanka Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.04

Górnik Łęczna

2.26

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.04

Górnik Łęczna creates 117% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.85

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.00

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.08

Świdniczanka Świdnik

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

84%

Górnik Łęczna or Świdniczanka Świdnik

81%

Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik

35%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

42%

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

89%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

66%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

39%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

65%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

28%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

80%

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.85 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.26

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.00 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

65%

level

19%

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

16%

Górnik Łęczna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff