Górnik Łęczna 1–2 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stal Stalowa Wola

P. Wojciechowski 31' (pen)

K. Śpiewak 90+3'

B. Kalinkowski 21' (OG)

6/6/2020

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Łęczna45%

×Draw27%

Stal Stalowa Wola28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Górnik Łęczna

1.39

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.04

Górnik Łęczna creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

0.88

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.29

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

0.88

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

72%

Górnik Łęczna or Stal Stalowa Wola

73%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

55%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

21%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

75%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

40%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

16%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

65%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

61%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.29 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Górnik Łęczna defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

45%

level

27%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

28%

Górnik Łęczna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

B. KalinkowskiOwn goal

25'

M. Fidziukiewicz

31'

P. WojciechowskiPenalty

46'

I. Korczakowski← B. Kalinkowski

61'

K. Śpiewak← D. Chromiński

62'

I. Korczakowski

62'

P. Stelmach← M. Płonka

63'

B. Śpiączka← P. Wojciechowski

69'

A. Stasiak← D. Lewandowski

80'

P. Szifer← P. Zmorzyński

83'

A. Szczutowski← B. Ciepiela

90+3'

K. Śpiewak

Górnik

Stal

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

Kalinkows

▼

Lewandows

Golinski

⚽

▼

Wojciecho

Manager: K. Kieres

46'▲I. Korczakowski←▼B. Kalinkowski

63'▲B. Śpiączka←▼P. Wojciechowski

69'▲A. Stasiak←▼D. Lewandowski

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

KorczakowskiŚpiączkaStasiak

Manager: S. Szydelko

61'▲K. Śpiewak←▼D. Chromiński

62'▲P. Stelmach←▼M. Płonka

80'▲P. Szifer←▼P. Zmorzyński

83'▲A. Szczutowski←▼B. Ciepiela

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

ŚpiewakStelmachSziferSzczutowski