Górnik Łęczna 1–1 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Piast Gliwice

B. Śpiączka 45+1'

P. Sokołowski 3'

10/16/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 11Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Łęczna28%

×Draw27%

Piast Gliwice45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.36

Górnik Łęczna

1.00

Piast Gliwice

1.36

Piast Gliwice creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

0.88

creates per match

1.13

1.59

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

0.88

Piast Gliwice

1.13

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.59

Piast Gliwice

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

55%

Górnik Łęczna or Piast Gliwice

73%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

72%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

10%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

63%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

26%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

8%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

74%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

39%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

38%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 0.88 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

28%

level

27%

Piast Gliwice scores more

45%

Piast Gliwice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

P. Sokołowski

Piast Gliwice · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

P. Sokołowski↳ Alberto Toril

8'

Kamil Pajnowski

13'

Tomasz Midzierski

26'

Alberto Toril Domingo

45+1'

B. Śpiączka↳ Leândro

58'

A. Pyrka← M. Ameyaw

58'

D. Steczyk← Tiago Alves

67'

Tomasz Tymosiak

72'

S. Drewniak← T. Tymosiak

81'

D. Gąska← Álex Serrano

82'

Dominik Steczyk

82'

Ł. Szramowski← M. Wędrychowski

84'

T. Hateley← Alberto Toril

86'

M. Mak← S. Krykun

86'

P. Banaszak← B. Śpiączka

89'

T. Mokwa← A. Mosór

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GórnikPiast

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots9

7Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target1

4Off Target7

2Blocked1

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box0

Passing

48%Possession52%

457Total Passes502

365Accurate Passes410

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0