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Górnik Łęczna vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
5/3/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 31Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Górnik Łęczna46%
×Draw26%
Odra Opole28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.48
Odra Opole
1.10

Górnik Łęczna creates 35% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 138 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
72%
Górnik Łęczna or Odra Opole
74%
Draw or Odra Opole
54%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
23%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
77%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
43%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
19%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
67%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
30%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
62%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
46%
level
26%
Odra Opole scores more
28%

Górnik Łęczna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Odra Opole

Górnik Łęczna beat Odra Opole 1-0 in I Liga on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.