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Górnik Łęczna vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
6/27/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Łęczna50%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.58
Bytovia Bytów
1.02

Górnik Łęczna creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.29
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
0.88
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
76%
Górnik Łęczna or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
50%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
26%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
47%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
21%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
64%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
27%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
67%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.29 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Górnik Łęczna defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
50%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
24%

Górnik Łęczna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Górnik Łęczna 2–0 Bytovia Bytów

Górnik Łęczna beat Bytovia Bytów 2-0 in II Liga - East on June 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Łęczna.