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Gorilla vs Gasogi United — National Soccer League 2019

Gorilla
Gorilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Gasogi United
Gasogi United
1/12/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Regular SeasonKigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Gorilla39%
×Draw29%
Gasogi United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorilla
1.19
Gasogi United
1.06

Gorilla creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 97 away

creates per match

Gorilla
1.17
Gasogi United
0.93

allows per match

Gorilla
1.19
Gasogi United
1.21

finishing

Gorilla+0.00on par
Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorilla ↓

Gasogi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gorilla or draw
68%
Gorilla or Gasogi United
71%
Draw or Gasogi United
61%

Winning margin

Gorilla wins by 2+
17%
Gasogi United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gorilla 1+ goals
70%
Gorilla 2+ goals
33%
Gorilla 3+ goals
12%
Gasogi United 1+ goals
65%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
29%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gorilla (draw refunded)
55%
Gasogi United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorilla at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorilla attack 1.17 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + Gorilla defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gorilla scores more
39%
level
29%
Gasogi United scores more
32%

Gorilla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gorilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Gorilla 1–2 Gasogi United

Gasogi United beat Gorilla 2-1 in National Soccer League on January 12, 2026.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.