Gorilla of the Universe 3–2 Hang Sai

Gorilla of the Universe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hang Sai

7/12/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gorilla of the Universe40%

×Draw18%

Hang Sai42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gorilla of the UniverseExpected goals in this matchHang Sai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

3.11

Gorilla of the Universe

3.06

Hang Sai

3.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

2.63

creates per match

1.84

4.38

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Gorilla of the Universe

2.63

Hang Sai

1.84

allows per match

Gorilla of the Universe

4.38

Hang Sai

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par

Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorilla of the Universe ↓

Hang Sai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

72%28%

Double chance

Gorilla of the Universe or draw

58%

Gorilla of the Universe or Hang Sai

82%

Draw or Hang Sai

60%

Winning margin

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+

25%

Hang Sai wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals

95%

Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals

80%

Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals

57%

Hang Sai 1+ goals

95%

Hang Sai 2+ goals

81%

Hang Sai 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)

49%

Hang Sai (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

89%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorilla of the Universe at home — creates 2.63, concedes 4.38 · 8 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorilla of the Universe attack 2.63 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.06

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gorilla of the Universe scores more

40%

level

18%

Hang Sai scores more

42%

Hang Sai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hang Sai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff