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Gorilla of the Universe vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Gorilla of the Universe
Gorilla of the Universe
FT
5 – 1
Chiba
Chiba
4/11/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gorilla of the Universe24%
×Draw16%
Chiba60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorilla of the Universe
2.22
Chiba
3.44

Chiba creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gorilla of the Universe
2.63
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Gorilla of the Universe
4.38
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorilla of the Universe ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Gorilla of the Universe or draw
40%
Gorilla of the Universe or Chiba
84%
Draw or Chiba
76%

Winning margin

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+
12%
Chiba wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals
89%
Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals
65%
Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals
38%
Chiba 1+ goals
97%
Chiba 2+ goals
85%
Chiba 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)
29%
Chiba (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorilla of the Universe at home — creates 2.63, concedes 4.38 · 8 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorilla of the Universe attack 2.63 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.22

Chiba attack 2.50 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gorilla of the Universe scores more
24%
level
16%
Chiba scores more
60%

Chiba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gorilla of the Universe vs Chiba

Gorilla of the Universe beat Chiba 5-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 11, 2026.