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Gorilla of the Universe vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Gorilla of the Universe
Gorilla of the Universe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
2/28/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gorilla of the Universe24%
×Draw17%
Cheng Fung59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorilla of the Universe
2.00
Cheng Fung
3.13

Cheng Fung creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gorilla of the Universe
2.63
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Gorilla of the Universe
4.38
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorilla of the Universe ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Gorilla of the Universe or draw
41%
Gorilla of the Universe or Cheng Fung
83%
Draw or Cheng Fung
76%

Winning margin

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+
12%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals
86%
Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals
59%
Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals
32%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
95%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
81%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)
29%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorilla of the Universe at home — creates 2.63, concedes 4.38 · 8 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorilla of the Universe attack 2.63 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gorilla of the Universe scores more
24%
level
17%
Cheng Fung scores more
59%

Cheng Fung at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Gorilla of the Universe 1–2 Cheng Fung

Cheng Fung beat Gorilla of the Universe 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on February 28, 2026.