Gorica 3–0 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Gorica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dravograd

T. Kavčič 87'

L. Colley 48'

L. Volarič 45'

11/9/2019

2. SNL · Round 17Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gorica64%

×Draw19%

Dravograd17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoricaExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.13

Gorica

2.35

Dravograd

1.13

Gorica creates 108% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 10 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Gorica

1.71

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

Gorica

1.16

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorica+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorica ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gorica or draw

83%

Gorica or Dravograd

81%

Draw or Dravograd

36%

Winning margin

Gorica wins by 2+

42%

Dravograd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gorica 1+ goals

90%

Gorica 2+ goals

68%

Gorica 3+ goals

41%

Dravograd 1+ goals

68%

Dravograd 2+ goals

31%

Dravograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gorica (draw refunded)

79%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorica at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorica attack 1.71 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Gorica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gorica scores more

64%

level

19%

Dravograd scores more

17%

Gorica at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

A. Hodžić← M. Paljk

45'

L. Volarič

48'

L. Colley

70'

T. Stefanović← S. Dobaj

79'

79'

87'

87'

90'

Gorica

Dravograd

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: B. Lučić

34'▲A. Hodžić←▼M. Paljk

79'▲N. Jermol←▼J. Kolenc

87'▲M. Gulič←▼L. Marinič

Gorica substitutes

HodžićJermolGuličTrivunovićTomičekLikar

Manager: B. Kus

70'▲T. Stefanović←▼S. Dobaj

79'▲E. Petek←▼A. Vrabič

90'▲J. Račnik←▼A. Pešl

Dravograd substitutes

StefanovićPetekRačnikValenteRoginaBrzinKitek