Gorica 2–0 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Gorica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brežice

E. Velikonja 76'

Ž. Leban 52'

11/26/2021

2. SNL · Round 18ŠRC Bonifika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Gorica56%

×Draw23%

Brežice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoricaExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

Gorica

1.79

Brežice

1.01

Gorica creates 77% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 37 away

1.71

creates per match

0.86

1.16

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Gorica

1.71

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Gorica

1.16

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorica+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorica ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gorica or draw

79%

Gorica or Brežice

77%

Draw or Brežice

44%

Winning margin

Gorica wins by 2+

31%

Brežice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gorica 1+ goals

83%

Gorica 2+ goals

53%

Gorica 3+ goals

26%

Brežice 1+ goals

64%

Brežice 2+ goals

27%

Brežice 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gorica (draw refunded)

72%

Brežice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorica at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorica attack 1.71 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Brežice attack 0.86 + Gorica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gorica scores more

56%

level

23%

Brežice scores more

21%

Gorica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Regovič← Kelvin Costa

52'

Ž. Leban

70'

N. Geč← M. Mitrović

73'

E. Velikonja← Ž. Leban

73'

R. Frešer← A. Ahmetaj

73'

M. Mrvič← A. Ruedl

76'

E. Velikonja

81'

L. Baruca← L. Marinič

81'

M. Hasanbegović← L. Vekić

84'

D. Bajs← F. Sivonjić

84'

T. Brkić← I. Brekalo

Gorica

Brežice

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Leban

Manager: M. Srebrnič

73'▲E. Velikonja←▼Ž. Leban

73'▲R. Frešer←▼A. Ahmetaj

81'▲L. Baruca←▼L. Marinič

81'▲M. Hasanbegović←▼L. Vekić

Gorica substitutes

VelikonjaFrešerBarucaHasanbegovićRadikonŽejenAgić

Manager: I. Kapušin

46'▲N. Regovič←▼Kelvin Costa

70'▲N. Geč←▼M. Mitrović

73'▲M. Mrvič←▼A. Ruedl

84'▲D. Bajs←▼F. Sivonjić

84'▲T. Brkić←▼I. Brekalo

Brežice substitutes

RegovičGečMrvičBajsBrkićJuhartGoričar