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Görelespor vs Yomraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Görelespor
Görelespor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yomraspor
Yomraspor
9/11/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundGörele 13 Şubat Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Görelespor69%
×Draw20%
Yomraspor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Görelespor
2.02
Yomraspor
0.67

Görelespor creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Görelespor
2.67
Yomraspor
1.00

allows per match

Görelespor
0.33
Yomraspor
1.38

finishing

Görelespor+0.00on par
Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Görelespor ↓

Yomraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Görelespor or draw
89%
Görelespor or Yomraspor
80%
Draw or Yomraspor
31%

Winning margin

Görelespor wins by 2+
44%
Yomraspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Görelespor 1+ goals
87%
Görelespor 2+ goals
60%
Görelespor 3+ goals
33%
Yomraspor 1+ goals
49%
Yomraspor 2+ goals
15%
Yomraspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Görelespor (draw refunded)
86%
Yomraspor (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Görelespor at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Görelespor attack 2.67 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Görelespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Görelespor scores more
69%
level
20%
Yomraspor scores more
11%

Görelespor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Görelespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Görelespor vs Yomraspor

Görelespor beat Yomraspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Görele 13 Şubat Stadyumu in Görele.