Görelespor 4–1 Giresunspor: Result & Stats

Görelespor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Giresunspor

9/25/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundGörele 13 Şubat Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Görelespor62%

×Draw21%

Giresunspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GörelesporExpected goals in this matchGiresunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.92

Görelespor

2.00

Giresunspor

0.92

Görelespor creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

1.50

0.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Görelespor

2.67

Giresunspor

1.50

allows per match

Görelespor

0.33

Giresunspor

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Görelespor+0.00on par

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Görelespor ↓

Giresunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Görelespor or draw

83%

Görelespor or Giresunspor

79%

Draw or Giresunspor

38%

Winning margin

Görelespor wins by 2+

38%

Giresunspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Görelespor 1+ goals

86%

Görelespor 2+ goals

59%

Görelespor 3+ goals

32%

Giresunspor 1+ goals

60%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

23%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Görelespor (draw refunded)

79%

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Görelespor at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Görelespor attack 2.67 + Giresunspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Giresunspor attack 1.50 + Görelespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Görelespor scores more

62%

level

21%

Giresunspor scores more

17%

Görelespor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Görelespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff