Gorée 1–0 Niarry Tally: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Gorée

FT

1 – 0

Niarry Tally

1/31/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Municipal De Mbao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gorée46%

×Draw31%

Niarry Tally23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoréeExpected goals in this matchNiarry Tally

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.72

Gorée

1.15

Niarry Tally

0.72

Gorée creates 60% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

0.84

creates per match

0.80

0.64

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gorée

0.84

Niarry Tally

0.80

allows per match

Gorée

0.64

Niarry Tally

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par

Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Niarry Tally →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Gorée or draw

77%

Gorée or Niarry Tally

69%

Draw or Niarry Tally

54%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+

20%

Niarry Tally wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals

68%

Gorée 2+ goals

32%

Gorée 3+ goals

11%

Niarry Tally 1+ goals

51%

Niarry Tally 2+ goals

16%

Niarry Tally 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)

67%

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gorée scores more

46%

level

31%

Niarry Tally scores more

23%

Gorée at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gorée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff