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Gorée vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

Gorée
Gorée
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
5/5/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Djagaly Bagayoko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gorée42%
×Draw33%
Jamono Fatick25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorée
1.02
Jamono Fatick
0.72

Gorée creates 42% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gorée
0.84
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

Gorée
0.64
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Gorée or draw
75%
Gorée or Jamono Fatick
67%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
58%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+
16%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals
64%
Gorée 2+ goals
27%
Gorée 3+ goals
8%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
51%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
16%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)
62%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gorée scores more
42%
level
33%
Jamono Fatick scores more
25%

Gorée at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gorée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Gorée 1–0 Jamono Fatick

Gorée beat Jamono Fatick 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Djagaly Bagayoko in Dakar.