Gorée 0–0 Guédiawaye: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Gorée

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guédiawaye

1/14/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Iba-Mar-Diop

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gorée35%

×Draw34%

Guédiawaye31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoréeExpected goals in this matchGuédiawaye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.82

Gorée

0.88

Guédiawaye

0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 69 away

0.84

creates per match

1.01

0.64

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Gorée

0.84

Guédiawaye

1.01

allows per match

Gorée

0.64

Guédiawaye

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorée+0.00on par

Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorée ↓

Guédiawaye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Gorée or draw

69%

Gorée or Guédiawaye

66%

Draw or Guédiawaye

65%

Winning margin

Gorée wins by 2+

12%

Guédiawaye wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gorée 1+ goals

59%

Gorée 2+ goals

22%

Gorée 3+ goals

6%

Guédiawaye 1+ goals

56%

Guédiawaye 2+ goals

20%

Guédiawaye 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gorée (draw refunded)

53%

Guédiawaye (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorée at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Guédiawaye away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorée attack 0.84 + Guédiawaye defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Guédiawaye attack 1.01 + Gorée defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Gorée scores more

35%

level

34%

Guédiawaye scores more

31%

Gorée at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Gorée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff