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Goražde vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
4/19/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Goražde53%
×Draw24%
Zvijezda Gradačac22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
1.66
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.98

Goražde creates 69% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
78%
Goražde or Zvijezda Gradačac
76%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
47%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
29%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
81%
Goražde 2+ goals
49%
Goražde 3+ goals
23%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
62%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
26%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
70%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Goražde scores more
53%
level
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
22%

Goražde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Goražde 2–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Goražde beat Zvijezda Gradačac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.