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Goražde vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
4/27/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 23Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Goražde52%
×Draw24%
Vis Kosova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
1.69
Vis Kosova
1.07

Goražde creates 58% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 61 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
76%
Goražde or Vis Kosova
76%
Draw or Vis Kosova
48%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
28%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
82%
Goražde 2+ goals
50%
Goražde 3+ goals
24%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
66%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
29%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
68%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Goražde scores more
52%
level
24%
Vis Kosova scores more
24%

Goražde at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goražde vs Vis Kosova

Goražde and Vis Kosova drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.