Goražde 2–1 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Goražde

FT

2 – 1

TOŠK Tešanj

3/20/2021

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Goražde50%

×Draw25%

TOŠK Tešanj25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoraždeExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.07

Goražde

1.60

TOŠK Tešanj

1.07

Goražde creates 50% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 95 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

0.94

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Goražde

1.67

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Goražde

0.94

TOŠK Tešanj

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Goražde or draw

75%

Goražde or TOŠK Tešanj

75%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

50%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+

26%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals

80%

Goražde 2+ goals

47%

Goražde 3+ goals

22%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

66%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

29%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)

66%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Goražde scores more

50%

level

25%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

25%

Goražde at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff