Goražde 1–1 Stupčanica Olovo: Result & Stats

Goražde

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stupčanica Olovo

9/21/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Goražde43%

×Draw27%

Stupčanica Olovo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoraždeExpected goals in this matchStupčanica Olovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Goražde

1.34

Stupčanica Olovo

1.08

Goražde creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

1.67

creates per match

1.23

0.94

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Goražde

1.67

Stupčanica Olovo

1.23

allows per match

Goražde

0.94

Stupčanica Olovo

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Goražde or draw

70%

Goražde or Stupčanica Olovo

73%

Draw or Stupčanica Olovo

57%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+

20%

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals

74%

Goražde 2+ goals

39%

Goražde 3+ goals

15%

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

66%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

29%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)

59%

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goražde scores more

43%

level

27%

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

30%

Goražde at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff