Goražde 2–0 Sloboda Tuzla: Result & Stats

Goražde

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Tuzla

10/7/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Goražde44%

×Draw28%

Sloboda Tuzla28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoraždeExpected goals in this matchSloboda Tuzla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Goražde

1.31

Sloboda Tuzla

1.00

Goražde creates 31% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

0.94

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Goražde

1.67

Sloboda Tuzla

1.07

allows per match

Goražde

0.94

Sloboda Tuzla

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Goražde or draw

72%

Goražde or Sloboda Tuzla

72%

Draw or Sloboda Tuzla

56%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+

20%

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals

73%

Goražde 2+ goals

38%

Goražde 3+ goals

14%

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

63%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

26%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)

61%

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Goražde scores more

44%

level

28%

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

28%

Goražde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff