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Goražde vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
5/17/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Goražde61%
×Draw20%
Radnički Lukavac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
2.12
Radnički Lukavac
1.07

Goražde creates 98% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
82%
Goražde or Radnički Lukavac
80%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
39%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
38%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
88%
Goražde 2+ goals
62%
Goražde 3+ goals
35%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
66%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
29%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
77%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Goražde scores more
61%
level
20%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
18%

Goražde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goražde vs Radnički Lukavac

Goražde beat Radnički Lukavac 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.