Goražde 4–1 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Goražde

FT

4 – 1

GOŠK Gabela

5/19/2021

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 27Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Goražde43%

×Draw27%

GOŠK Gabela30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoraždeExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.11

Goražde

1.38

GOŠK Gabela

1.11

Goražde creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

1.67

creates per match

1.29

0.94

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Goražde

1.67

GOŠK Gabela

1.29

allows per match

Goražde

0.94

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Goražde or draw

70%

Goražde or GOŠK Gabela

73%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

57%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+

20%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals

75%

Goražde 2+ goals

40%

Goražde 3+ goals

16%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

67%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

30%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)

59%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goražde scores more

43%

level

27%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

30%

Goražde at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff