GOR Mahia 3–0 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ulinzi Stars

12/18/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 2Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

GOR Mahia48%

×Draw29%

Ulinzi Stars23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.78

GOR Mahia

1.27

Ulinzi Stars

0.78

GOR Mahia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

1.58

creates per match

0.86

0.70

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

77%

GOR Mahia or Ulinzi Stars

71%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

52%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

22%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

72%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

36%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

14%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

54%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

18%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

68%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

48%

level

29%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

23%

GOR Mahia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff