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GOR Mahia vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tusker
Tusker
1/20/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

GOR Mahia43%
×Draw28%
Tusker29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.29
Tusker
1.02

GOR Mahia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Tusker
1.00

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
71%
GOR Mahia or Tusker
72%
Draw or Tusker
57%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
19%
Tusker wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
72%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%
Tusker 1+ goals
64%
Tusker 2+ goals
27%
Tusker 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
59%
Tusker (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Tusker defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tusker attack 1.34 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
43%
level
28%
Tusker scores more
29%

GOR Mahia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Tusker

GOR Mahia beat Tusker 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.