GOR Mahia 2–0 Sony Sugar: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

2 – 0

Sony Sugar

1/30/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 9Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

GOR Mahia46%

×Draw29%

Sony Sugar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchSony Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.81

GOR Mahia

1.24

Sony Sugar

0.81

GOR Mahia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 46 away

1.58

creates per match

0.93

0.70

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Sony Sugar

0.93

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Sony Sugar

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Sony Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

76%

GOR Mahia or Sony Sugar

71%

Draw or Sony Sugar

54%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

21%

Sony Sugar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

71%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

35%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

13%

Sony Sugar 1+ goals

56%

Sony Sugar 2+ goals

19%

Sony Sugar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

66%

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Sony Sugar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sony Sugar attack 0.93 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

46%

level

29%

Sony Sugar scores more

24%

GOR Mahia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff