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GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
E. Assifuah 82'
P. Ochuoga 49'
F. Oluoch 47'
F. Memusi 18'
J. Waithira 4'
1/14/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

GOR Mahia52%
×Draw28%
Murang'a SEAL21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.38
Murang'a SEAL
0.76

GOR Mahia creates 82% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 50 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Murang'a SEAL
0.82

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Murang'a SEAL
1.18

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Murang'a SEAL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
79%
GOR Mahia or Murang'a SEAL
72%
Draw or Murang'a SEAL
48%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
25%
Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
75%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
40%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
16%
Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
53%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
18%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
71%
Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Murang'a SEAL attack 0.82 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
52%
level
28%
Murang'a SEAL scores more
21%

GOR Mahia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
J. Waithira
18'
F. Memusi
47'
F. Oluoch
49'
P. Ochuoga
82'
E. Assifuah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: GOR Mahia 3–2 Murang'a SEAL

GOR Mahia beat Murang'a SEAL 3-2 in FKF Premier League on January 14, 2026.

Goals: J. Waithira (4'), F. Memusi (18'), F. Oluoch (47'), P. Ochuoga (49'), E. Assifuah (82').

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.