GOR Mahia 0–2 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kenya Police

3/13/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 20Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

GOR Mahia43%

×Draw29%

Kenya Police28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.95

GOR Mahia

1.24

Kenya Police

0.95

GOR Mahia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 10 away

1.58

creates per match

1.20

0.70

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Kenya Police

1.20

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Kenya Police

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

72%

GOR Mahia or Kenya Police

71%

Draw or Kenya Police

57%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

19%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

71%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

35%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

13%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

61%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

25%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

60%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

43%

level

29%

Kenya Police scores more

28%

GOR Mahia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff