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Göppinger SV vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
1 – 1
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
9/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Göppinger SV52%
×Draw22%
Neckarsulmer SU25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
1.90
Neckarsulmer SU
1.25

Göppinger SV creates 52% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 42 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
75%
Göppinger SV or Neckarsulmer SU
78%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
48%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
30%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
85%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
56%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
29%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
71%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
36%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
68%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
52%
level
22%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
25%

Göppinger SV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Göppinger SV 1–1 Neckarsulmer SU

Göppinger SV and Neckarsulmer SU drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.