Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Göppinger SV vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
T. Profis 44'
B. Yalman 25'
5/6/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Göppinger SV57%
×Draw21%
Freiburger FC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.06
Freiburger FC
1.20

Göppinger SV creates 72% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 42 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
78%
Göppinger SV or Freiburger FC
79%
Draw or Freiburger FC
43%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
34%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
87%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
61%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
34%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
70%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
34%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
72%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
57%
level
21%
Freiburger FC scores more
22%

Göppinger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
B. Yalman
44'
T. Profis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Göppinger SV 2–0 Freiburger FC

Göppinger SV beat Freiburger FC 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 6, 2023.

Goals: B. Yalman (25'), T. Profis (44').

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.