Göppinger SV 0–1 Bissingen: Result & Stats

Göppinger SV

FT

0 – 1

Bissingen

8/30/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Göppinger SV53%

×Draw21%

Bissingen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Göppinger SVExpected goals in this matchBissingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.46

Göppinger SV

2.16

Bissingen

1.46

Göppinger SV creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 93 away

2.05

creates per match

1.66

1.27

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Göppinger SV

2.05

Bissingen

1.66

allows per match

Göppinger SV

1.27

Bissingen

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Bissingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Bissingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw

74%

Göppinger SV or Bissingen

79%

Draw or Bissingen

47%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

32%

Bissingen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

88%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

63%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

36%

Bissingen 1+ goals

77%

Bissingen 2+ goals

43%

Bissingen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

67%

Bissingen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Bissingen away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Bissingen defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bissingen attack 1.66 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Göppinger SV scores more

53%

level

21%

Bissingen scores more

26%

Göppinger SV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff