Gonsenheim vs TuS Kirchberg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Gonsenheim74%
TuS Kirchberg11%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gonsenheim creates 182% more chances
Season form · 78 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gonsenheim ↓
Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches
TuS Kirchberg away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.79
TuS Kirchberg attack 0.70 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 74%?"
Gonsenheim at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 74% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Eintracht Trier
Kaiserslautern II
Hassia Bingen
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
TuS KoblenzGonsenheim
FV Engers 07
Mülheim-Kärlich
Karbach
Salmrohr
Eisbachtal
Emmelshausen
Wormatia Worms
Dudenhofen
Diefflen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Jägersburg
Elversberg II
Röchling Völklingen
Pfeddersheim
Hertha Wiesbach
Speyer
Mechtersheim
EppelbornIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gonsenheim host TuS Kirchberg on Sunday, 6 November 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Gonsenheim vs TuS Kirchberg
Gonsenheim beat TuS Kirchberg 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 6, 2022.
The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.