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Gonsenheim vs Quierschied — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Quierschied
Quierschied
3/16/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 27Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gonsenheim67%
×Draw18%
Quierschied15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.43
Quierschied
1.06

Gonsenheim creates 129% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Quierschied
0.84

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Quierschied
2.58

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Quierschied+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Quierschied →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
85%
Gonsenheim or Quierschied
82%
Draw or Quierschied
33%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
45%
Quierschied wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
91%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
69%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
43%
Quierschied 1+ goals
65%
Quierschied 2+ goals
29%
Quierschied 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
82%
Quierschied (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Quierschied away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Quierschied defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.43

Quierschied attack 0.84 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
67%
level
18%
Quierschied scores more
15%

Gonsenheim at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Gonsenheim 3–1 Quierschied

Gonsenheim beat Quierschied 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.