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Gonsenheim vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
2/18/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Gonsenheim61%
×Draw21%
Mülheim-Kärlich18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.08
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.05

Gonsenheim creates 98% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
82%
Gonsenheim or Mülheim-Kärlich
79%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
39%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
37%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
87%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
61%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
34%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
65%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
28%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
77%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
61%
level
21%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
18%

Gonsenheim at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gonsenheim vs Mülheim-Kärlich

Gonsenheim and Mülheim-Kärlich drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.