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Gonsenheim vs Hassia Bingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
2/20/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gonsenheim53%
×Draw22%
Hassia Bingen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.00
Hassia Bingen
1.34

Gonsenheim creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Hassia Bingen
1.40

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Hassia Bingen
1.73

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Hassia Bingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
74%
Gonsenheim or Hassia Bingen
78%
Draw or Hassia Bingen
47%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
31%
Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
86%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
59%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
32%
Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
74%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
39%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
67%
Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
53%
level
22%
Hassia Bingen scores more
26%

Gonsenheim at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Gonsenheim 3–2 Hassia Bingen

Gonsenheim beat Hassia Bingen 3-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.